14+4 = 18 (v Brexit)
For all the naysayers and dooms-day Brexiteers out there, here’s one for you:
“14+4 = 18”
So the theory goes that the land cycle has run to this formula over the past 200+ years of recorded history. Research suggests that the economy follows the value of land (theory of economic rent… and all that!).
More specifically the theory is that the land cycle has followed a period of 14 years up (until it hits its peak) and then four years down (14+4); and this cycle has repeated itself over the past 200+ years. So this cycle repeats every 18 years or thereabouts.
You can watch Phillip Anderson (a big time proponent of the 14+4=18 theory) explaining it here:
You can see an example of the real estate graph here:
When was the last 14+4?
So we had a peak in the late 1980s and then a bust in 1992. The next peak was 2006-07 followed by 4 years of downturn.
So where does this leave us now?
So if the 14+4 theory is to hold up, the next kick up from the last downturn should have started around 2011ish and should run up to 2025 before the next crash. So we are now in the relatively early stages of a 14 year bull cycle, despite the negativity that is swirling around us.
Sure, there will be ups and downs along the way (Brexit, anyone?) but it will be interesting to see how this plays out against hiccups such as Brexit and whatever else might be heading down the pass….? It is interesting to note that stockmarkets across the globe are hitting new highs – so the early stages look promising.
Food for thought as you plan for the future in your business against what might otherwise appear to be a negative macro economic backdrop?